The Lunatic Fringe

Why I’d take Tyler over Taylor

2010-05-21T01:00:00.005-04:00

It’s a great debate, Taylor versus Tyler. They both look like they’re going to be franchise players for their organizations and because of that, I’ve tried to learn as much as I can about both players. But despite my best efforts to stay neutral (so that I could be happy with either), one player has risen to the top of my own personal draft board. That player is Tyler Seguin. Here’s why…

1. I think Seguin's regular season is significantly more impressive than Hall's.

Seguin putting up 106 points when the next best player on his team only had 23 goals (and nobody else even had 20) is significantly more impressive than putting up 106 points on a team with FIVE 30 goal scorers and THREE point per game defensemen.

Think about that and try to put it into NHL terms. Think of how hard it would be for a player to put up 106 points- by himself. Think how dominant that guy would have to be. I'm guessing that's why the people who follow the league voted for Seguin over Hall for Red Tilson Trophy, as the OHL's Most Outstanding Player. Seguin also beat Hall for Best Prospect Honors and finished second to '09 Draftee, Jordan Eberle for CHL Player of the Year.

How many points might Seguin have put up if he got to play on a team as overloaded with talent as Windsor?

2. Seguin is a year behind Hall in terms of development and experience.

Because of birth date cut-offs, Seguin is a full year behind Hall in terms of development and experience. This is only Seguin's 2nd year in the OHL, to Hall's 3rd. Seguin is eligible for 2 more World Jr's to Hall's 1. That's a significant difference at that age. Check out this excerpt from a Gare Joyce article on the topic...

“One OHL insider: "Making these projections, you have to allow for how many players these guys have played in the league. Because Hall is a late 1991 [birthday] and came into the league a year ahead of Seguin [who is a January '92 birthday], Hall has the benefit of two full seasons and the longest playoff run you can have [going into the 2009-2010 season]. Seguin is halfway through his second year now, though he's only a couple of months younger. It's like with John Tavares and Matt Duchene last season -- Tavares was in his fourth year in major junior and Duchene his second, so what you saw with Tavares was a much more fully developed kid. The money says that's what we're seeing with Hall and Seguin. … Tie goes to the younger guy."

I look at it like this: How many points would Seguin get if he got a 3rd crack at the OHL like Hall?

3. There’s “more room for growth” in Seguin’s game.

I’ve heard that line repeatedly with regard to Seguin, and the best explanation I’ve heard for it was by a poster on the Oiler board who’s seen both players extensively, ”The fact that he [Seguin] more or less equaled Hall in the regular season despite being behind physically is big feather in his cap. It’s scary to think how much better his overall game would be if he was as physically developed as Hall. Contrary to Hall, Tyler isn't close to a finished product, there are so many dimensions that he can add to his game as he gets stronger and more experienced. In terms of pure talent and smarts, Seguin has Hall beat, he also might be physically superior when all's said and done as well. Seguin's ceiling is higher and that’s why this debate is close.” That last point, about Seguin having a higher ceiling, is also a phrase that keeps coming up from scouts and the media. To paraphrase from today’s Edmontonian: “Seguin may be the better player in three years, but how can the Oilers pass on Hall with the Memorial Cup he’s having.” I understand the debate, but respectfully, I prefer the guy who projects to be the best player in three years.

4. Seguin’s skill-set.

In the OHL’s Coaching Poll, Seguin was voted the OHL’s Smartest player, second Best Stickhandler, Best Playmaker, and second Best Goal Scorer (to Hall, even though he had 8 more goals.)

For a scouting report, I’ll once again defer to the incredibly well-informed Surixon...

-Outstanding skater with world class puck skills and hands.
-Has a very hard and accurate wrist shot with a nice deceptive release.
-Outstanding hockey sense and anticipation in all 3 zones on the ice.
-Sees the ice exceptionally well and passes at an incredibly high level.
“As for player comps. I hate the Yzerman, Toews and Spezza ones as his game imo isn't that similar to any of them. First, he skates at a much higher level than any of those three and has an extra gear speed wise that none of them have or had. He has better puck skills then both Spezza and Toews. In fact the only things that Spezza and Seguin share are their wrist shots, vision and passing. Seguin is much more advanced in his overall game than Spezza was at the same age.

The comparison I like the best is Datsyuk, they play similar styles and posses very similar tool sets. I believe Seguin has a chance to be better than Pavel because he's bigger and is also faster. “

That’s an interesting comparison because Datsyuk is the exact player Chiarelli referred to last year when describing the way he wanted his skill players to play. It’s also worth noting that Datsyuk frequently plays the wing for Zetterberg.

Based on what I’ve seen, and taking into consideration the ‘bigger, faster version of Datsyuk’ comparison, I happen to think that, as a winger, Seguin projects like a North American Marian Hossa. In his prime, Hossa was a 40+ goal, 100 point, Selke Nominee. That’s just about as perfect/ideal a skill-set as I can think of. Now, Seguin doesn’t yet have Hossa’s ability to work the walls because, while they’re both 6’1”, Seguin’s a slight 180 and Hossa’s a powerful 210, but that’s exactly what Surixon was talking about when he said that Seguin can add even more dimension to his game as he fills out and gets stronger. Otherwise, the speed, the hands/stickhandling prowess, the shot/release, the two-way game, the vision and 3 zone smarts… they’re all applicable.

5. I think Seguin is a better fit for the Bruins than Hall.

First off, I don’t think there’s any issue with Seguin playing the wing. He broke into the OHL as a wing. Chiarelli says he’s seen him be just as effective on the wing. Seguin says he’s comfortable on the wing… And who’s to say that, like Patrick Marleau, he won’t be more effective as a winger?

Second, I think that Savard is most effective playing with a righty. This may sound silly, but look back at this year where we saw Savvy really struggle playing exclusively with lefty trigger men like Sturm and Satan. And throughout Savard’s career, he’s always been paired with a righty, from Iginla to Kovalchuk (not Hossa) to Murray to Kessel. There’s just something about the way Savard likes to operate from the right corner and half-wall, facing the slot on his forehand, where a righty is open for a one-timer or a quick release, and a lefty isn’t.

And like Kessel, I think Seguin’s experience as a center, specifically carrying the puck through the neutral zone and having the offense flow through him, meshes well with the way Savard quickly gets the puck into his RW’s hands coming out of his own zone.

If the Bruins draft Seguin, they should be able to drop him right into Kessel’s old spot on RW with Savard and Lucic. But I’m not so sure they can do the same with Hall because he's a left-shot. If Hall plays on Savard's RW, then that means Savvy would be playing with two lefties. And if that doesn’t work and they put Hall back at his natural LW, then that means Savard would have to play with one of the right wingers he’s already struggled with in Ryder or Wheeler. Either way, Seguin seems like the more comfortable fit, to maximize the assets that we already have.

I also really like what I’ve heard about Seguin’s high IQ and attention to defense. You heard the Datsyuk reference, one of the reasons for that is Seguin’s awareness in all three zones, and his deft ability to strip pucks and transition. All qualities that are a prerequisite for big minutes on a Claude Julien coached team.

I’d also be remiss if I didn’t admit that I’m a bit concerned about Hall’s health. Every game this guy plays he seems to get absolutely blasted. What’s going to happen when you add 20-40 lbs to those collisions in the NHL? Admittedly, this criticism feels unfair because a lot of the hits Hall takes are the result of playing fearlessly- a trait that should be commended. But given the Bruins history with high-end talent having their careers shortened due to injury, I can’t help but worry about it.

I will say that Hall has the clear edge in ‘clutch playoff performance.’ He’s about to become a two-time Memorial Cup MVP and he earned that honor, without equivocation. I’d only add that it’s hard for Seguin to match that accomplishment because of the team he plays on. And fwiw, when Seguin did get to play on a great team with great players, for Canada at the under 18’s, he stole the show. Again from Gare Joyce:

"Seguin was great in that tournament," the scout said. "The line he played on with [Sudbury's] John MacFarland and [Ottawa's] Tyler Tafoli was the best line I've seen in more than 10 years at the summer-18s."

So maybe Seguin has big game ability too…

And last but not least are Seguin’s character, coachability and work ethic. A lot of people say that the Taylor vs Tyler debate comes down to Hall being more NHL ready versus Seguin having a potentially higher upside, and that Hall is #1 because he’s the ‘bird in the hand’. But I think the concern that Seguin won’t reach his potential is severely mitigated by his work ethic. I remember a recent article where his coach described him as the hardest working player he’s ever had (seen?). And as far as character and coachability, Seguin draws comparisons to Steve Yzerman, while Kyle Woodlief of RLR had this to say about Hall in USA Today, “…we'd hate to be the NHL coach whose job it will be in a few months to rein in this selfish, immature winger with a head swelled so large that he can't fit through doorways and absolutely no concept of doing what's best for the team instead of thinking of himself.” And there was something similar in the Gare Joyce column as well, “What you do see sometimes is a little acting out. He'll talk a lot, pregame, at players, at other teams' benches and give refs a hard time." Those kinds of comments strike a nerve in this Bruins fan because part of the reason Kessel was deemed persona non grata is because of maturity, stubbornness and coachability issues.

So in the final analysis, I choose Seguin, because there are logical arguments for why I think he may have the higher ceiling, because there are physical reasons why
I think he’d mesh better with our current lineup, and because his two-way style and character strengths are in sync with the Bruin’s organizational philosophy.

Bruins Deliver Classic

2010-01-03T01:35:00.001-05:00

I’ll be the first to admit, I was worried. Worried that a failure to deliver the goods on New Year’s Day would result in a backlash of negative media attention on the Bruins. That the progress this organization made last year in terms of winning back fans and earning a place at the table of the Boston sports scene would all be undone by an afternoon of failed scoring chances and lackluster physical play. But on the NHL’s biggest stage the Bruins delivered.

You knew the setting was going to be surreal. But the Bruins really outdid themselves with the presentation. My personal pre-game highlights: the backyard style rink in right field, Claude Julien’s old school Biltmore hat and varsity jacket. The low, slow, UFO-like fly-by of the Stealth Bomber, the Dropkick Murphy’s Shipping up to Boston, and of course, watching Bobby Orr’s #4 climbing out of the tunnel and heading out onto the ice to face-off with Bobby Clarke (who won the draw but couldn’t pick up the puck! Haha).

The game was played fast and hard and nobody in my section sat down from start to finish. I was happy to see the Bruins match the Flyers physical game (for the first time this season), but you could see and hear the natives getting restless when 50 minutes had passed without a hometown goal. Then a funny thing happened: Sweet Caroline. It seemed to catch the players and fans off guard and it absolutely picked up the spirit of the crowd. The final 10 minutes and overtime were as thrilling as it gets. Both sides had chances. Thomas was brilliant. Bergeron was brilliant. And history was made.
The next day, the headline on the front page of the Boston Globe read:

Grand Slam on Ice

Bruin’s overtime thriller at Fenway a reminder of how the game- and the city- used to be.

A reminder of how the city used to be… In my opinion, that’s what was at stake here. This event has the power to influence the masses. Last year’s Winter Classic was the most watched hockey game in 33 years. And with the Bruins delivering the way they did, Friday’s Classic will most assuredly bring fans back to B’s. Already, talk shows are abuzz with talk of the event and pleas from callers for more regular hockey talk. At work and on the street, Sox fans, Patriot fans, Celtic fans all wanted to talk about Thornton’s scrap, Bergeron’s pass and Thomas’ crazy goaltending.

People are talking about the Bruins again, and if this team gives us something to cheer for in the Spring, the Winter Classic won’t just be a reminder of how the city used to be… it’ll be the launching point for making this city a hockey town again.

My Canadian and American Olympic Teams...

2009-12-27T01:16:00.002-05:00

The Canadian and American Olympic teams are going to be announced this week and there's no shortage of quality candidates on either side. Here's a look at the two teams I'd select...

TEAM CANADA

Nash - Crosby - Iginla
Heatley - Getzlaf - Perry
E.Staal - Stamkos - St.Louis
Lucic - M.Richards - Doan
Spares: Marleau, Toews

Bouwmeester - Pronger
Weber - Keith
Phaneuf - Green
Spares: Niedermayers, Doughty

Brodeur
Fleury - Luongo

Notes: The most notable cut here has to be the NHL's scoring leader, Joe Thornton. But Thornton has failed to deliver too many times in the post-season for me to rely on him. I also wanted to integrate some fresh faces and young blood onto this team so I included young superstars like Getzlaf, Perry, Toews, Eric Staal and Steven Stamkos. And to make their transitions smooth, I put them with their regular linemates. I wanted my fourth line to have a crash/bang feel, so I went with a proven leader in Doan alongside one of the league's nastiest SOB's in Mike Richards. And I chose hometown hero Milan Lucic over Brendan Morrow and Ryan Smyth as part of the same youth training program. Patrick Marleau didn't quite make it as a regular (see Thornton), but I like him as a spare because he's as talented a scorer as anyone on the team and he's versatile in that he can play center or wing, power play or penalty kill. If there's a weakness in this forward group, it's that there's not a lot of real speed merchants, and again, Marleau could help in that regard.

On defense, I dropped Bryan Boyle for the younger Mike Green. I also reduced the role of Scott Niedermayer, so that I could integrate some of Canada's great young dmen like Duncan Keith, and Drew Doughty into the fold. The toughest call here was in choosing Dion Phaneuf over steadier defensemen, but ultimately I chose him for his upside. Overall this defense is extraordinarily mobile, tough and talented.

No surprises in goal where I expect Brodeur to once again carry the load.

TEAM USA

Parise - Stastny - Kane
Ryan - Pavelski - Kessel
Malone - Kesler - Langenbrunner
Brown - Dubinsky - Backes
Spares: van Riemsdyk, Callahan

E.Johnson - Rafalski
Suter - Bogosian
Martin - Komisarek
Spares: Orpik, Myers

Miller - Thomas

Quick

Notes: Brian Burke is on record as wanting a Team USA that's extremely hard to play against. And I actually think that's a pretty good strategy. The Americans have some talented players, but they can't match up talent-wise with the Russians or Canadians, so why not build a team with a defensive strategy in mind, rather than simply collecting the 10 highest scoring American forwards. To that end, I loaded the top6 with the country's best and brightest offensive players, but in the bottom6, I opted for players with grit and defensive acumen over more talented offensive players like Gomez and Connolly.

The US defense boasts some incredible young talent in Eric Johnson, Zack Bogosian, Ryan Suter and Tyler Myers. To offset some of that youth I included a pair of veterans in Brian Rafalski and Paul Martin. Lastly, in keeping with the 'tough to play against' mantra, I added Mike Komisarek and Brooks Orpik.

There should be a great battle for starting goalie in the US nets. Ryan Miller has outplayed the entire league through the first half of the season, but when Tim Thomas is focused and determined to win, he has the ability to steal games and make saves you didn't think were possible. For the backup role, I snubbed the more productive Craig Anderson in favor of training the younger Jonathan Quick.

Dare to dream big? Kovalchuk

2009-12-20T01:56:00.005-05:00

Nowadays, all anyone can talk about with regard to the Bruins is an offensive upgrade. And nobody would inject more offense into this team at the trade deadline than one Ilya Kovalchuk. Right now, there’s probably a 50/50 chance as to whether or not Atlanta puts Kovy on the market. To their credit, Don Waddell has (finally) surrounded Kovy with a strong supporting cast. But the contract discussions have dragged on and one gets the feeling that Kovalchuk has been in Atlanta long enough to know whether or not he wants to stay. Does he believe Atlanta is more of a Cup contender than the team he’d be traded to? Does he want to go play in a hockey market? The longer this situation goes, the wider the door is open to a trade. Heck, at this point, some are even questioning whether or not Atlanta’s owner is prepared to commit the massive payout it would take to retain Kovalchuk when the team is already hemorrhaging money. The team, as is, has a tremendous young core in place, and the bounty from a Kovalchuk trade could set them up to be a very good, very young, very cheap team going forward.

So what would it take to acquire him?
Provided the B’s could afford Kovalchuk’s pro-rated salary at the deadline (~$1.36M), any trade for him would have to be made with the knowledge that you might not be able to keep him. For one thing, Kovalchuk’s not likely to agree to an extension without getting a feel for the city, and even if he were willing to sign right away, there are no guarantees the Bruins could pull off the roster restructuring it would take to keep him.

So with that in mind, I think we can dial down the rhetoric that says it would take a player like Bergeron to acquire Kovalchuk. Philadelphia traded Lupul, Sbisa and two first-round picks for a signed Chris Pronger, so I’m going to assume that that would be the absolute max for an unsigned Kovalchuk.

From the Bruins point of view, that deal roughly translates to Wheeler or Stuart as the good young roster player, Colborne or Caron as the top level prospect, and Boston’s next two first round picks.

Looking around the league, there are probably a lot of teams that could offer players comparable to Wheeler or Stuart, but I don’t think there would be too many teams that would part with two first round picks for a rental- even one as good as Kovalchuk. But because Boston has both of Toronto’s 1st rounders, they have the ability to make that move without crippling their future. If there were another team offering two firsts, Boston could potentially still trump their offer by including Toronto’s first from 2011, with the idea being that Toronto won’t be as good in 2010 as many of the current playoff teams.

So, let’s say the Bruins win the Kovy lottery. Could he fit in here? Some don’t think so, but I beg to differ. Kovalchuk is fearless. He may not be a real active hitter, but he has destroyed a few players with open ice hits. He’s been in more than a few fights. And more importantly he does backcheck and battle for pucks. He’s certainly not known for his defense, but if Claude Julien can make Phil Kessel and Marc Savard responsible two-way players, I don’t see why he couldn’t do the same with Kovalchuk. And as good as the Bruins were last year, upgrading from Ward to Morris, from Axelsson to Sturm, from PTSD Bergeron to the real Bergeron and from Kessel to Kovalchuk- would make them significantly better.

Also not to be underestimated is the impact a player like this can have on the bottom line. Kovalchuk is an attraction. And a Bruins team that is loaded for Bear would generate the kind of fan frenzy that Pittsburgh and Washington now enjoy. Just imagine Boston as a rabid hockey town again: consecutive sell-outs, Bruins jerseys everywhere, TV ratings spikes and a playoff atmosphere for every regular season game…

So what would it take in terms of salary and roster changes, to keep him here long-term?
Resigning Kovalchuk is probably going to cost $90M over 10 years (which is the same money Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin make), but as we’ve seen with Savard, Hossa and Franzen, you can bring that cap hit down significantly by tacking on bogus years at the league minimum to the tail end of the contract, when the player will either be retired or bought out. In Kovy’s case, the numbers shake out like this: $90M over the first 10 years, then I’d drop it down is to $4.5M in year 11 (because you can’t drop this contract by more than $4.5 in any one year), and finally $525k for the last 3 years. In a nutshell, that’s $96M over 14 years for a cap hit of $6.85M.

I know those numbers are just… crazy for fans to digest. A decade long deal… $100M commitment… But the way I see it, Kovy is only 26 years old, so he'll be in his prime for the next 6 years. You should be able to get tremendous value out of him at a $6.85 cap hit over that span. The next 2-3 years would probably show some decline, and around year 9, year 10 you could very well be looking at an albatross contract as Kovy inches towards 36, 37 years old. But if he doesn’t retire, you do have the buyout option. And to me, a couple bad years for 7 or 8 years of one of the top5 players in the world is a trade I'll make. From Kovalchuk’s perspective, he’d be making market value for as long as he probably plans on playing, it allows him to play on a good team, and keep him with his former center and teammate Marc Savard. So all things considered, a pretty attractive offer.

What are the implications for next year’s team?
No doubt, you’d have to make some hard cuts to make this work. Just the fact that the Bruins don’t have any one player making $7M that they could cut means they’d have to move at least $8M in salary to afford Kovalchuk and the replacement player. The B’s could also try to move several mid-level salary types instead of just one or two big ticket players, but Atlanta had Kovalchuk, Hossa, Savard and not much else- and failed to make playoffs every year. So I still believe depth is important. My preference here would be to move two bigger contracts. Ryder seems to be the most expensive, expendable forward, and based on the stellar play of Rask and the abundance of solid 1b/backup goalies on the UFA market, the other guy I’d move would be Tim Thomas. I know that Timmy has a NMC, but if it’s clear he’s going to be relegated to backup duty, I think he’d waive it to keep his starter’s job and name his next team. Much like Vokoun did two years ago.
(Like I said, there are other options here, you could move Ryder, let Morris walk and waive Sturm if he doesn't agree to waive his NTC... Ryder/Thomas is just the path that I'd choose.)

Provided the Bruins bring back the rest of their existing team, those changes would leave the Bruins roughly $2.6M in cap space to add a #4 defenseman (to replace Ference), and add a solid, veteran backup to work with Rask. One of those replacements could come in the form of Toronto’s first round pick this year, with a couple potential stud defensemen available in Cam Folwer, likely to be there at pick #3, as well as Gormley and Gudbransson in the top10. As for backup goalies, I think the Bruins have to give Rask a backup who could play 40 games in case he struggles in his sophomore year, and there are quite a few UFA options in that regard: Biron, Niittymaki, Budaj, Mason, and even former Bruin Alex Auld, who knows these players, was terrific in this system, and posted a .911 save percent in 40 games for Ottawa last year. The Bruins could also try to fill these holes via the trades of Thomas and Ryder with goalies like Osgood and Conklin.

Here’s a look at a possible lineup:

Kovalchuk-Savard-Bitz
Sturm-Krejci-Wheeler ($3M)
Lucic-Bergeron-Marchand
Begin-Sobotka-Thornton
Extra: Dr.Love

Chara-Morris ($3.5)
Fowler-Wideman
Hunwick-Boychuk
Extra: McQuaid

Rask-Auld

That’s a pretty lethal lineup. And you still have over $1.1M in cap space if you wanted to upgrade Auld to a guy like Mason. I know people are going to freak when they see Bitz on the top line, and there’s enough talent there to set up the lines any way you like, but bear in mind, when Kovy and Savard played together they had a 12 goal plumber in Scott Mellanby on their right wing, digging pucks out of the corners, setting screens and driving to the net. That year, Kovalchuk had a career high in goals (52) and points (98), and Savard had career highs in goals (28) and points (97) as well. So there’s a precedent here that these two ultra skilled players would benefit from a right winger who can do for them, what Lucic did for Savard and Kessel (from the left side) the year before. All in all, that’s a team that will challenge for the Cup again next year.

Going forward, you’ve got Chara and Bergeron coming up for new contracts, but that shouldn’t be an issue because I doubt they’re going to get more than they make right now (Chara in particular could work out a deal like Pronger/Savard and actually lower his cap hit), and you also have Sturm’s $3.5 coming off the books. Not to mention a host of young prospects (after this next draft) in the pipeline, who could be ready to compete for jobs in 2011.

So there you have it: At least one way to acquire Kovalchuk, resign him, and integrate him onto this team without crippling our future or decimating the depth that has made this team successful. Is it a pipe-dream? Probably. But if you’re gonna dream, may as well dream big.

Winter Classic: Another missed opportunity for Bs?

2009-12-14T23:48:00.001-05:00

It wasn’t that long ago that the Bruins were irrelevant in this town. Last year’s miracle season went a long way towards “making Boston a hockey town again” as Marc Savard recently put it. They were an entertaining team to watch last year, with the second best offense in the NHL, and several bangers and brawlers to put exclamation points on their wins and to give fans something to cheer about in their losses. Fans came back in droves. Attendance went up. TV ratings went up. Season ticket sales spiked. And the revival was underway.

But then things started to go wrong…

The Bruins had a very public, very messy divorce with one of their most popular players in Phil Kessel. Which reminded many of these casual Bruin fans of the days when the Bruins constantly put profit ahead of winning. It didn’t matter that this wasn’t one of those times. And the Bruins rushed right out and signed Lucic and Savard to long term deals, as if to send a message to these fans that they really weren’t being cheap- they just didn’t like Kessel’s game. But the damage was done.

The Bruins also failed to capitalize on all of their pre-season hype and excitement by flopping on opening night, and getting off to a miserable start. The fans that came back, eager to watch a winner, were suddenly getting turned off by a team that wasn’t winning.

To make matters worse- the Bruins were not very entertaining either. Their offense had gone from best in the conference last year to 2nd worst in the NHL by Thanksgiving. Their most entertaining non-scorer, Milan Lucic, was put on long-term-injury-reserve, only to come back for 4 games, get re-injured, and go right back on the LTIR. So even when they finally started winning games consistently, they were boring, low scoring affairs. And while hardcore hockey fans take plenty of gratification out of a hard fought, defensive win, the casual fans that the Bruins need to become relevant again- want to see goals, hits and fights.

All of which brings us to the Winter Classic. For one day the Bruins will be the center of the sporting universe. If the Bruins deliver a rambunctious, skillful, energetic win, they’ll be the toast of the town. All the early season trials and tribulations will be forgiven. The victory could serve as an emotional starting point for bigger and better things, much the way the local College teams use the Beanpot as a tune-up for their stretch run. A stirring win like that would give the B’s a real audience for the second half of their season, and energize the fan base for the playoffs. But if the season series with the Philadelphia Flyers has been an indication of what we can expect on New Year’s Day- expect to be bitterly disappointed.

Last night for example, the Bruins were once again, out-skilled, out-physical’d and downright intimidated by the Broad Street Bullies. A sad truth, considering the Flyers are the most disappointing team in the NHL this season. Nevertheless, the Flyers yet again, put up almost 40 shots on goal while the B’s, yet again, failed to get 30. Scott Hartnell and Dan Carcillo, ran around and did whatever they wanted to Bruins players. Heck, even dainty Danny Briere felt like a big man last night.

If this is what we’re going to see at a game where the average fan is paying over one thousand dollars a ticket- then expect there to be vicious and disastrous backlash.

The talking heads on radio and late night TV will jump on the chance to trash the Bruins. I can see it now, “In true Bruins fashion, they let us down. Once again, they don’t have enough talent to entertain and they don’t have enough heart to deliver when it matters.” And there will be some truth in that statement. The B’s failed to capitalize on the momentum they had two years ago, going into Game 7 in Montreal. And the same group, after being picked as the overwhelming odds-on-favorite to get to the Cup Finals last year, came up flat in the second round and was bounced by Carolina. An embarrassing loss to the Flyers under the Green Monster in front of 40,000 fans will only solidify this stigma.

And when the media is done trouncing the Bruins for yet another failure on the big stage, expect them to fall right back into hockey obscurity. Heck, it’s already started. Case in point, I was listening to sports radio the day after KesselMania II, hoping to hear some hockey talk, and the host says, “Phil Kessel was in town last night, we can talk about that today. Then again, he didn’t really give us much to talk about. Kind of like another 81 in these parts…” and thus ended the hockey portion of the program. Nothing about the Bruins. Nothing about the Flyers game coming up. Right back to the Patriots. Let’s face it, many of these main stream media guys know very little about the game, so all hockey talk in this town gets put through a universal sports translator, and when the Bruins are viewed in the ‘Tom Brady/Big Papi/Kevin Garnett’ context, they come up short.

So here’s a plea to Peter Chiarelli, Jeremy Jacobs, Cam Neely and anyone else in the Bruins hierarchy who’s hoping the Winter Classic will be more than just another bad memory: Make a move. Overpay if you have to. This is the 26th worst offense in the NHL. The 25th worst power play in the NHL. You have a formula that works, we saw it last year, but you are missing a piece: that fast skating, puck handling, goal scorer who pushes defenses back and creates space for everyone on the ice. I’ve assumed, as I’m sure many fans have as well, that Chiarelli plans on making a trade to address this glaring weakness at some point in the season- so move up your timetable a bit. There is a list below of 26 players who have all been rumored available at some point this season, many of whom, I’m sure, are available right now for the right price. Identify the guy you want (Filatov please), pay the piper, and get this team the player they need.

Don’t let the Winter Classic become another Game 7 loss, another Joe Thornton O-for, another Petr Klima in OT, another low bridge by Samuelsson, another Bobby Orr's a Blackhawk, another Too Many Men on the Ice...

Jack Edwards on Phil Kessel's Departure

2009-12-10T21:35:00.000-05:00

Jack Edwards had some interesting comments about Phil Kessel during tonight's Leafs/Bruins game at the Garden.

“There were some Boston veterans who will go unnamed, who said after last saturdays game, ‘Hey, he [Kessel] didn’t want to be a part of this, and we’re going to make life tough on him every time we play… because there’s something personal here. He did not want to be here. He was offered him $16M over 4 years to remain a Bruin and it wasn’t good enough. And those guys in the room, they did take it personally.”

The Saturday game that Edwards is talking about saw Marc Savard get a hat trick, and Mark Recchi, Zdeno Chara and go out of his way to take a few runs at the former Bruin. Tonight, the hostilities continued with Boychuk, Begin, Chara and Savard all getting their shots in.

A Look at the Bruins Trade Options

2009-12-09T22:03:00.003-05:00

The Bruins are playing great hockey right now (second hottest team in the league at 7-2-1 over their last 10), but with one third of the season in the books, they have exposed one glaring weakness: offense. The B’s have the 25th best (worst?) offense in the NHL. Granted, there are a few players who aren’t scoring at their usual pace (I’m looking at you Ryder), but even if they were, this team is still one top6 forward short of being able to roll three scoring lines, and Coach Julien still hasn’t found a trio for the first line that works with any consistency.

So here’s an in depth look at the options that are available this year, starting with the rental crop…

Kovalchuk is the obvious cream of the crop. IF he were to become available the Bruins would have to consider making a move, and they should also be in one of the stronger positions to aquire him, what with their wealth of draft picks. On top of that, Kovy has a history/chemistry with Savard that has to be attractive to him as well. The question then becomes will he cost so much in roster assets that acquiring him defeats the purpose? Let’s not forget that a Kovy/Hossa/Tkachuk led team couldn’t win a playoff game in ’06. Depth matters.

Selanne, IMO is probably at the top of the Bruins’ wish list. Maybe even ahead of Kovalchuk. Not because he’s a better player, but because the ROI could be higher. In other words, he’s not going to cost as much in trade, he’s won a Cup and has a wealth of playoff experience, and adding him essentially recreates the dynamic the Bruins had on their first line last year. Problem is, Selanne has a NTC. On top of that, he convinced ANA to bring in his pal Koivu, so it'll take some convincing to get him to leave once he recovers from his hand injury (late January).

Kariya is starting to heat up and on the ice, is the left wing version of Selanne. Like Selanne, he also has a NTC, so he’s going to have some say in where he goes. Another issue is his hefty $6M cap hit. I don’t know if the Bruins could afford him without sending some roster assets back, and again, if they’re trading away salaried players, they’re probably not improving themselves all that much.

Whitney had 32 goals in '07, and 9 goals on Carolina's Cup winner. The Canes have also made no secret about wanting to unload their UFA's. However, Rutherford has expressed an interest in allowing Whitney, who’s been a good and loyal soldier for the Canes, to choose his own destination. And if that’s the case, I’m betting Whitney’s former team, Detroit, is the front runner. (Aren’t they always?) Detroit’s in the unusual position of having to fight for a playoffs spot this year, partly because they let so much of their scoring depth walk this off-season (Hossa, Samuelsson & Hudler). Whitney coming back could give the Wings the boost they need to get over the hump and into the top8 in the West.

Frolov is a guy I’ve been keeping an eye on all season. He’s off to a slow start this year, and has had some issues with his head coach, but this is a 27 year old who has twice scored over 32 goals- from the checking line. And he is the type of player that Peter Chiarelli loves: big, strong, highly skilled and a two-way player. So his game would fit in nicely on the defense-first Bruins, and playing with an elite playmaker like Savard (instead of Handzus) could do wonders for Frolov’s already impressive goal totals. The downside here is that, playing for LA, he’s never been in the post-season, so you don’t know what you are going to get from him when the real games start. But Frolov could be a deadline pickup that, if he works out, is someone the B’s look to keep, much like they did with Mark Recchi last year.

Ponikarovsky is a big, strong skating, energetic player who’s having a great season. He’s never score more than 23 goals in a season, but this year is on pace for 31. If you believe he’s for real, then he could be a nice fit. If you believe he’s just having a hot streak and will come back down to earth, then he’s not going to appreciably upgrade the Bruins.

Nolan did score at a 30 goal pace last year, and is the kind of right handed/one-timing right winger Savard has had success with before. But Nolan is hit or miss. He only had 16 goals two years ago, and is only on pace for 18 now. In short, I’m leary of acquiring a 37 year old who isn’t exactly having a strong season.

Tkachuk, is the player the Bruins tried very hard to land at last year's deadline. The big power forward plays with much less energy these days, but is still a menace in front of the opposition's goalie. Like Nolan, KT is also 37 years old, hasn’t broken the 30 goal plateau in 6 years, and is only on pace for 16 this season. He also has a fairly unimpressive playoff track record. Buyer beware on these two relics.

Svatos has 4 seasons in the NHL and has twice scored at better than a 34 goal pace. Problem is, in his other two NHL seasons he couldn't pot more than 14. He’s also small and brittle. But he plays a courageous style and like I said, he knows how to score.

Brunette is another cagey veteran who’s having a great year (on pace for 28g/73p). He lacks speed and a physical game, but he’s very slick around the cage. He could certainly help a playoff team, but would his addition give the Bruins a legit first line?

Sykora couldn’t score 30 playing with Malkin and Crosby, and without them he’s only on pace for 12 goals. What could we reasonably expect from him in Boston?

Tanguay is part of Tampa’s struggling second line along with Vinny Lecavalier, so it’s hard to tell if his poor numbers this season are self inflicted or the result of his surroundings. But he’s only 30 years old, so one would think he hasn’t lost it yet. Tampa is also very close to being a playoff team. If they’re still in the mix at the deadline, he probably won’t become available. If they fall out of the race, he could be a nice pickup for a team in need of a playmaking winger. But I don’t think his skill set (passing) is what Boston needs.

Stempniak has struggled mightily since he had 27 goals in ’07, scoring just 14 goals last year in Toronto and only 13 the previous year. Once thought of as a shoot first winger with some good speed and scoring instincts, he could make for an inexpensive reclamation project.

Kozlov is more of a playmaker than goal scoring winger, and like Tkachuk and Nolan, is an aging vet mired in a bad season. So the warning signs are up on this player. He’s had his share of success in Atlanta (he was a ppg player last year), but I don’t get the feeling the Bruins would be interested in his style or services.

Afinogenov is probably the comeback player of the year. Last season, he had just 6 goals, this year, he already has 11 and is on pace for 33g/78p. He also has 30 takeaways in just 27 games! When he’s on his game, he’s one of those players who changes how teams defend because his blazing speed and puck handling ability pushes defenders back. He’s not a ‘shoot first’ type of finisher, but he is a first line talent who would make the Bruins attack much more dangerous. IF the Thrashers fall out of the playoff race, a good prospect or pick could probably pry him away.

Non-rental trade options: Established players

Ryan is, IMO, the cream of this crop. The kid scored 30 goals as a rookie last year, and is on pace for 36 this year. Ryan is everything that Kessel was, and everything he wasn’t: Fast and ultra talented, while also being big, strong and powerful. Despite all that, there continue to be rumors that Anaheim isn’t thrilled with his play, and is listening to offers. To complicate things further, contract talks reached an impasse and were reportedly shelved until the off-season. So there are a lot of factors at work here that are reminiscent to the Kessel situation in Boston last year. The cost in trade would be exorbitant, and probably starts with Toronto’s first this year so that Anaheim could quickly recoup their loss. And it would cost the Bruins a lot in cap space next year, at least the $5.4M that Kessel got from Toronto to resign him. But adding Ryan now would make Boston instant contenders this year.

Carter is another elite talent who could be shopped if Philadelphia continues to struggle. He can play center and wing and like Ryan, would explode with Savard feeding him the puck. Philly’s biggest weakness is between the pipes and the Bruins are one of the few teams in the NHL with two outstanding netminders. A Tim Thomas for Jeff Carter swap could save Philly’s season and put Boston into contention. But the age difference between Carter and Thomas makes this an unlikely swap.

Gagne for Thomas? That’s certainly closer to a like-like exchange, IMO. Both guys have proven themselves to be elite players, both guys are making $5M per year. But both guys have NTC’s.

Horton is one of those players who has played well in a bad situation. He’s never played on a team good enough to make the playoffs. He’s constantly mentioned in trade rumors. He’s never had an elite playmaking center to play with. Yet he continually scores at a 30 goal pace. And he’s still just 24 years old. Who knows how good he could be with Savard? The difficult part of this equation is knowing why the Panthers would deal him, and what they’d want in return? No doubt, it would be significant.

Sharp & Versteeg are a few more names often mentioned in the rumor mill because of Chicago’s cap troubles. No doubt either one would provide a huge boost to the Bruins offense. But unless Chicago is getting a goaltender who’s a clear cut upgrade over Huet, I don’t see them moving either player until the off-season, as they have no other holes in their lineup and need these talented players for their own Cup run.

Setoguchi is a player you wouldn't think would be available. Last year, he was a 22 year old 30+ goal scorer. He's fast, shifty, and gritty. But he is struggling since having his role reduced due to the arrival of Danny Heatley, and as of this writing, he's 0 for his last 7 games. He's also missed 12 games with a leg injury, and over those 19 combined games (injury + slump), San Jose's offense didn't skip a beat. On top of that, San Jose has $22M to resign 12 free agents including prominent players like Nabakov, Marleau, Blake and Pavelski, who could cost SJ close to $20M by themselves. If San Jose has a weakness this year, it's that they rely on a pair of #7/reserve dmen to round out their top6. So they might look to convert this talented, but soon to be expensive, young forward into a talented, but cheap, young defenseman.

Hagman is an intriguing player. He scored at a 28 goal pace last year, and had 27 the year before that. So the fact that he’s on pace for 40 this season is probably just a function of an early season hot streak. Still, there’s no denying his speed and hands would be an asset to the team, and you’d have to think that Savard could boost Hagman’s typical goal totals into the 30’s if they played together consistently. And at $3M per year for two more years, that could be a real good value. Most comparable top6 forwards go for a 2nd round pick at the deadline, but because Hagman is signed past this year, he could command more.

A. Kostitsyn is probably the last name Bruins fans want to see on this list. Over the last couple of years, Bruins fans learned to hate him for his ‘on the edge’ style of play. But like Steve Begin, I bet that they’d get over that quickly if he delivered. And the fact is, Kostitsyn has the skill to be an impact player. He scored 26 goals as a rookie, he’s got speed, strength and a fantastic release. He’s certainly gotten off track this year, and who knows how much of that is tied to his brothers struggles… Regardless, a change of scenery could be just what he needs. But would Montreal ever trade him to Boston?

O'Sullivan is another intriguing player. He has the shot, release, willingness to shoot, and pedigree of a true sniper (47 goals as an AHL rookie). But to date, the 24 year old’s career high is just 22 goals. The Bruins could try to acquire Sully with the belief that they’d be buying low, and that he’d break out with the B’s. But I’m sure that was Edmonton’s thought process when they acquired him as well. And considering he makes $2.9M, that’s a bit of a risky proposition. High risk/reward with this player.

Non-rental Trade Options: Up and Coming Players

Filatov is a player who’s popped up on everyone’s trade radar this season. A pre-season frontrunner for ROY, Filatov couldn’t seem to get on Coach Hitchcock’s good side, so he asked out, and Columbus loaned him to the KHL. Columbus then extended Hitchcock’s contract so the situation doesn’t look like it’s going to be easily resolved. On top of those issues, Columbus has fallen outside the top8 in the West, and management has to be feeling pressure from the owner and fans to prove last year’s playoff entry wasn’t a one-time thing. Filatov could net them the piece that could make all the difference in their season. A quick look at the stat sheet shows that Colubus’ biggest weakness this year has been in preventing goals, so Filatov for a talented, young shut down defenseman might make sense.

Mueller scored 22 goals as a rookie and looked as if he was going to be a future star. But last year he only netted 13 goals and this year, he’s on pace for just 3! I can’t imagine a player trending like that would cost much in trade. Still, he was the 8th overall pick in ’08 so it’s hard to imagine he’s washed up already. Somebody’s going to take a chance on him finding finding his confidence with a change of scenery. Boom/bust potential on this deal. But Claude Julien has an excellent track record of working with and developing young players.

Brunnstrom is another boom/bust player. There’s no denying Brunnstrom’s impressive size/speed/skill package. And he had 17 goals in just 55 games as a rookie last year (which included 5 game winners)> But has been relegated to a healthy scratch these days. Still, I’m keeping my eye on Brunnstrom because the Bruins were considered a finalist in signing him as a UFA a year and a half ago- and Chiarelli was clearly upset when Brunnstrom chose Dallas. So Chiarelli may look at Brunnstrom’s struggles as an opportunity to finally get his man. Like Mueller, there’s a high boom/bust factor on this acquisition. Under Julien, Brunnstrom could break-out on a line with Savard, or he could show Bruins fans why he can’t seem to stay in Dallas’ lineup.

S. Kostitsyn, like his brother, has built up some ill-will around these parts. There are also some character questions here, because of his alleged involvement with a criminal, and the way he handled getting sent down this season. However, there's no denying he has top line talent. The Bruins would have to do their homework on this kid, including talking with him directly, to see if he's matured at all and to gauge how his personality would fit in the locker room. But this is one of those low cost/high reward opportunities, where he won't cost much in trade, he doesn't cost much in cap space, and if he doesn't work out, you can simply let him walk.